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Propensity Modelling

Use the power of data to boost your conversion rates

What is Propensity Modelling, and why is it important?

Propensity modelling predicts how likely individual applicants are to enrol with you. We use machine learning to find patterns in your enquiry, application and enrolment data, and then calculate conversion probabilities.

We use your data to get a complete picture of applicants, whether UG or PG. As well as maximising the ‘easy’ opportunities, we quantify the harder ones to uncover opportunities in valuable but challenging markets. It’s a powerful tool that has increased click-through rates, applications and firm accepts for many of our university clients.

What is Propensity Modelling, and why is it important?

Propensity modelling predicts how likely individual applicants are to enrol with you. We use machine learning to find patterns in your enquiry, application and enrolment data, and then calculate conversion probabilities.

We use your data to get a complete picture of applicants, whether UG or PG. As well as maximising the ‘easy’ opportunities, we quantify the harder ones to uncover opportunities in valuable but challenging markets. It’s a powerful tool that has increased click-through rates, applications and firm accepts for many of our university clients.

The benefits of Propensity Modelling

  • Greater precision. Target your prospecting activity on specific postcodes, profiles and colleges.
  • Stronger ROI. Focus your investment on the opportunities that will lead to more applications and enrolments.
  • Clearer differentiation. Nuance your proposition to specific audiences to stand out.
  • Better in-cycle planning. Your strategies will be informed by predictive modelling.

Our approach:


While every propensity modelling project has unique aims and KPIs, they all tend to involve the following six steps:

Step one

Cleaning, merging and enhancing your data

We’ll combine your diverse data into a single dataset for analysis. This involves cleaning it and enriching it with additional third-party data.

 

 

Step two

Identifying the variables

We’ll then pick out the behavioural and demographic factors that impact the likelihood of success.

 

Step three

Developing segments

Using regression modelling, we’ll calculate the probability of conversion for each record. The result is four propensity-based segments, rated from Low to Very High.

Step four

Quantifying opportunities

We’ll blend our propensity insight with market data to understand the market share, competitor landscape and future opportunities in different locations.


 

Step five

Analysing the funnel

Next, we’ll understand how different groups behave as they progress through the cycle – focusing on the touchpoints that have an impact on conversion.

Step six

Recommendations

We’ll then provide actionable recommendations on how you should target, engage and invest to increase enrolments and ROI.

Meet our experts:


Vicky Conroy

Vicky Conroy

As Consultancy and Insight Lead, Vicky leads our team of 15 consultants and strategists with expertise in areas including marketing, brand, creative, market research and data science. As a Higher Education specialist, Vicky delivers and implements effective and innovative strategic solutions to overcome marketing and recruitment challenges for our university clients.

Ed Layt

Ed Layt

Leading a team of 15 consultants and strategists, Ed has a deep understanding of both the challenges of the education marketplace as well as the realities of working within an institution. With over 18 years of education experience, he’s delivering marketing consultancy projects with more than 100 further and higher education institutions.

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